Anthem (ANTM) is the second largest health insurer in the U.S. and currently has 42.5M covered members. Understandably for such a large insurer with a market cap of nearly $80B and TTM revenue of over $100B, investors may be concerned about a potential future government intervention with a Medicare For All (NYSE:MFA) policy that could decimate its revenue and send Anthem into a world of irrelevance. However, this is likely an overstated risk that would only happen with an extreme version of MFA.

The effect MFA would have on Anthem depends on the specific implementation and what role the policy would leave for private insurers. Certain politicians prefer a single-payer and fully government run system. Most politicians, including president-elect Joe Biden, want to continue to allow roles for private insurers by expanding Obamacare. If we operate on that assumption, any expansion of government spending on healthcare programs under Obamacare is likely to give Anthem a boost because Anthem actually has significant exposure to the government sector.

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